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Can You Solve the Twin Birth Statistics Puzzle

Twin Birth Statistics Puzzle

Twin birth statistics puzzle: In a year, 3% of births give rise to twins. What percentage of population is a twin: 3%, less than 3% or, more than 3%?

Hint: Consider total number of babies born.

Solution to Twin Birth Statistics Puzzle

No harm in assuming total number of births in the year 100. The solution logic will be true for any number of births, such is the nature of statistics.

In 100 births, 3% births give rise to twins.

Rest 97 births are single child births. 3 twin births add 6 babies. Means, number added to the population 97+6 = 103.

6 out of 103 babies born is a twin.

But the population is unknown.

Realistic population growth case:

Realistically, for a 2% population growth, for growth of 103, population is a little more than 5000. The percentage of population being a twin is much less than 3%.

In this realistic case, answer is: less than 3%.

An extremely unrealistic scenario for starting population:

Population can be a minimum of 101, 100 mothers and a single father, extremely unlikely situation, still a probability.

With addition of 103 babies, total population will be 204. Number of babies born as twins is 6. Percentage of population as a twin is also less than 3% in this case.

If the starting population is more, the percentage gets still smaller.

Overall, answer is less than 3%.


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